Join us in Monte Carlo!

Dr. Robert Reville will explore the Long-Tail Emerging Risks in the changing landscape of casualty.

The Nine Newly Known Unknowns: Long-Tail Emerging Risks for 2020

Date: Monday, September 9, 2019
Time: 2:45pm-3:45pm
Location: Fairmont Monte Carlo, Salon Lacoste

This is a complimentary session for Les Rendez-Vous attendees. More Information

In 2019, a new landscape of casualty emerging risk came into focus in the United States.  With glyphosate (aka, Roundup) litigation continuing to proceed, talc litigation transforming into a new wave of asbestos litigation, and the mega-scale opioids litigation continuing with discovery in multidistrict litigation, a new wave of bodily injury litigation has arrived in the United States.

In this new landscape we see a plaintiffs bar with new sources of capital; state, local and tribal governments increasingly relying on litigation to address public health issues; a jury pool increasingly predisposed to regard commercial actors as nefarious; and years of accumulated scientific evidence investigating bodily injury from commercial activity with new mechanisms such as endocrine disruption and the disruption of the microbiome.

In this presentation, we will first review the state of the current glyphosate, opioids and talc litigations (GOT) and provide estimates of potential litigation losses, including consideration of potential insurance losses limited by exclusions or small exposure footprints.

Next, we will review the implications of GOT and identify a set of next generation risks.  In long-tail casualty, nothing is truly “unknown unknown”—all risks take years to develop and have prior footprints in scientific literatures or in the courts.  Praedicat applies technology to sort through the data from science and other text sources to identify and track the newly known unknowns.

Based upon our 2019 findings, we will present three sets of three newly known unknowns for 2020:

  1. The first set consists of three commercial products and activities that have been newly hypothesized in 2019 to cause bodily injury, an analysis that captures low-probability risks that might result in losses in future years;
  2. The second set consists of three commercial products and activities for which scientific research has progressed in 2019 to the point that litigation may be close to starting; specifically, a greater than 1% chance of litigation resulting in $1B in economy-wide losses commencing in 2020;
  3. The third set consists of three successors to the opioids litigation, raising public health issues with significant local footprints and commercial drivers that could result in litigation initiated by state, local and tribal governments in 2020. For the third set, we will present scenario estimates of the potential size of litigation for these public health risks.

We will then conclude with a discussion of how a quantitative approach to identifying, tracking and quantifying newly known unknowns can be used to grow the casualty insurance market and reduce the casualty coverage gap.

 

For questions, contact Yvonne.Torres@praedicat.com

Join us in Monte Carlo!

Dr. Robert Reville will explore the Long-Tail Emerging Risks in the changing landscape of casualty.

The Nine Newly Known Unknowns: Long-Tail Emerging Risks for 2020

In 2019, a new landscape of casualty emerging risk came into focus in the United States.  With glyphosate (aka, Roundup) litigation continuing to proceed, talc litigation transforming into a new wave of asbestos litigation, and the mega-scale opioids litigation continuing with discovery in multidistrict litigation, a new wave of bodily injury litigation has arrived in the United States.

In this new landscape we see a plaintiffs bar with new sources of capital; state, local and tribal governments increasingly relying on litigation to address public health issues; a jury pool increasingly predisposed to regard commercial actors as nefarious; and years of accumulated scientific evidence investigating bodily injury from commercial activity with new mechanisms such as endocrine disruption and the disruption of the microbiome.

In this presentation, we will first review the state of the current glyphosate, opioids and talc litigations (GOT) and provide estimates of potential litigation losses, including consideration of potential insurance losses limited by exclusions or small exposure footprints.

Next, we will review the implications of GOT and identify a set of next generation risks.  In long-tail casualty, nothing is truly “unknown unknown”—all risks take years to develop and have prior footprints in scientific literatures or in the courts.  Praedicat applies technology to sort through the data from science and other text sources to identify and track the newly known unknowns.

Based upon our 2019 findings, we will present three sets of three newly known unknowns for 2020:

  1. The first set consists of three commercial products and activities that have been newly hypothesized in 2019 to cause bodily injury, an analysis that captures low-probability risks that might result in losses in future years;
  2. The second set consists of three commercial products and activities for which scientific research has progressed in 2019 to the point that litigation may be close to starting; specifically, a greater than 1% chance of litigation resulting in $1B in economy-wide losses commencing in 2020;
  3. The third set consists of three successors to the opioids litigation, raising public health issues with significant local footprints and commercial drivers that could result in litigation initiated by state, local and tribal governments in 2020. For the third set, we will present scenario estimates of the potential size of litigation for these public health risks.

We will then conclude with a discussion of how a quantitative approach to identifying, tracking and quantifying newly known unknowns can be used to grow the casualty insurance market and reduce the casualty coverage gap.

 

For questions, contact Yvonne.Torres@praedicat.com

Date: Monday, September 9, 2019
Time: 2:45pm-3:45pm
Location: Fairmont Monte Carlo, Salon Lacoste

This is a complimentary session for Les Rendez-Vous attendees. More Information