A Note from Our CEO

A Note from Our CEO

A Note from Our CEO 600 550 Ben Gruber

Announcing Long Tails, and a Contest for our Readers

It is with pleasure that we introduce to you our new client newsletter, Long Tails.  Long Tails is part of a broader commitment we have made at Praedicat in 2019 to deliver more emerging risk insights to our clients in more presentation formats and settings.  This was the inspiration behind the Themes in CoMeta, our New York opioids presentation, our London market event, and now this newsletter.

You may wonder why we called the newsletter Long Tails.  I’ve always found it curious that when you talk to property folks about “tail risk,” they describe the tail of the exceedance probability (EP) curve which measures the potential for low probability large-scale losses.  When you talk to liability folks, the tail refers to latency, or the potential for claims on the occurrence form to be paid many years after the policy is written.  Praedicat exists in the world of large-scale long-latency events:  both the time tail and the size tail need to be quantified and managed.   There are two long tails to worry about instead of one.  Of course, our goal is to help you to stop worrying and to start writing it profitably instead.

Now that you understand about the name of the newsletter, I’m going to pose a challenge to our readers.  I’m going to ask two questions and the first five Praedicat subscribers to answer both questions correctly in an email to Julia (julia.fuller@praedicat.com) will get to choose between two prizes, either a bottle of California wine (it will be a wine called Genuine Risk from Santa Barbara, CA), or a super-exciting Praedicat coffee mug (you choose).   Now the questions:

1.) What do “tails” have to do with the name of CoMeta?   (The answer to this can be found in CoMeta blogs)

2.) What do “tails” have to do with the name of our latency cat model Nekomodel.   (A clue about this is in CoMeta blogs, but it is only a clue.)

Here’s a bonus question to get the wine and the mug.

3.) What does the runner-up blog name “Messier Objects” have to do with tails?   (The answer to (1) and some web searching should lead you to this answer. )

Answers will be provided in the next issue.  Good luck!  And thanks for reading Long Tails!